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Commodity outlook: Crude oil slips; here’s how others may fare

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NEW DELHI: Bullion counters gained but crude oil and almost all base metals traded with cuts on Thursday ahead of ECB’s policy meet outcome scheduled later in the day.

Gold was flat with positive bias while silver gained 0.28 per cent. In the base metal block, all counters fell with nickel slumping the most at 0.78 per cent. Crude oil was down 0.93 per cent and its peer natural gas down 0.06 per cent.

“Sharp appreciation in Indian Rupee may put pressure on gold and silver. Traders can sell gold at Rs 51,600 with the stop loss of Rs 52,100 and target at 50,600 . They can also sell Silver at Rs 69,000 , with the stop loss of 70,500 and for the target of 67,000,” Anuj Gupta , DVP- Commodities and Currencies Research, Angel Broking.

NCDEX Agridex, an agricultural futures index that tracks the performance of the ten liquid commodities, was up 0.54 per cent or 6.05 points at 1,110.70 led by gains in gura gum and guar seeds.

Here is how SMC Global expects commodities to fare today:

Bullion: Bullion counters may post correction and trade with bearish bias where gold may test Rs 50,700 and facing resistance near Rs 51,680 while silver may test Rs 66,890 and facing resistance near Rs 68,990.

Base metals: Base metals may trade sideways with a bearish bias. Copper can move towards Rs 521 and face resistance near Rs 528. Zinc may move towards Rs 190 and take support near Rs 186. Lead can move towards Rs 149 while taking support near Rs 146. Nickel trade bullish bias where it may take support near Rs 1,088 and resistance near Rs 1,127. Aluminum may move towards Rs 150 while taking support near Rs 146.

Energy: Crude oil may trade sideways with a bearish bias where it may take support near Rs 2,710 and resistance is seen near Rs 2,870. Natural gas may again witness selling pressure where resistance is seen near Rs 181 and support near Rs 172.

Spices: Turmeric futures (October) may see some short covering till Rs 5,920-5,950. Jeera futures (October) is expected to descend and test Rs 13,800-13,700, facing resistance near Rs 14,000. Dhaniya futures (October) is expected to trade sideways in the range of Rs 6,700-6,800.

Oilseeds: Soybean futures (October) is expected to trade sideways in the range of Rs 3,750-3,850 with upside getting caped. Mustard futures (October) is expected to witness correction towards Rs 5,275-5,250 taking negative cues from the spot markets. Soy oil futures (Oct) may trade sideways in the range of Rs 875-885, while CPO (Sept) is expected to trade on a cautious note in the range of Rs 761-768.

Other commodities: Cotton futures (Oct) may witness correction towards Rs 17,300. Chana futures (October) is expected to witness a consolidation in the range of Rs 4,800-4,900. Guar seed futures (Oct) may witness an upside momentum towards Rs 3,950-3,980, while guar gum futures (Oct) may trade sideways in the range of Rs 5,980-6,080.

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