Gold futures fall; analysts divided on outlook

Domestic gold and silver futures fell on Wednesday, in line with global cues, but analysts were divided about the outlook for the yellow metal.

MCX October gold opened at Rs 53,450 per 10 gm as compared to Tuesday’s closing of Rs 53,571 per 10 gm. At around 12.30 pm, it fell to Rs 53,167 per 10 gm. MCX September silver opened at Rs 68,783 per kg compared to Tuesday’s closing of Rs 69,505 per kg, and fell further to Rs 68,090 in afternoon trade.

In the spot market, gold was trading at Rs 53,424 per 10 gm as compared to Rs 53,815 per 10 gm on Wednesday, bringing some cheer to the jewellery trade ahead of the Onam festival when sales usually surge in southern India. Silver was trading at Rs 67,135 per kg, down by Rs 2,863 per kg compared to Tuesday’s spot price.

Anuj Gupta, deputy vice president (commodities and currencies research) at Angel Broking said “Today we are seeing profit booking in gold and silver on the back of global equity market trading at a six month high and the expectation of ease off trade tension between US and China. However, weakness in US bond yield and depreciation in dollar index may be supportive for the bullion.”

In global markets, gold prices held above the key level of $2,000 per ounce, supported by a softer US dollar. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,002.12 per ounce and silver rose by 0.6% to $27.82 per ounce.

The dollar index fell for a sixth straight session to near a more than two-year low. A weaker US dollar makes gold less expensive for holders of other currencies.

Sriram Iyer, senior research analyst at Reliance Securities said: “Investors’ mood and sentiment were slightly lifted at the possibility of the US Congress finally reaching a consensus over the latest stimulus measures, with Republicans hoping to reach an agreement with Democrats for their proposed $500 billion package.”

“Technically, both gold and silver are trading on negative note from last session where prices can see some sideways to marginal downside momentum in the coming session,” Iyer said.

However, Hareesh V, head of commodity research at Geojit Finance said there was demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. “A weak US currency and expectations of more economic easing measures amid slow global growth continue to lift the safe haven demand of gold. However, an intermittent profit booking cannot be ruled out on signs of easing US-China trade tensions and optimism about the coronavirus vaccine,” he said.